Every delivery network looks healthy in a normal week. Then a promotion lands, volume jumps by half, and the same routes, vans and drivers are asked to do far more with no extra hours in the day. Peak planning is the work of finding that gap weeks before it opens, and closing it with options that cost less than a scramble. Teams building this view can ask iFactory AI how capacity data is brought together.
Delivery Capacity Planning for Seasonal Peaks and Promotion Events
Forecast the surge, count the real routes you can run, and line up waves and backups before the first promotion order arrives. iFactory AI turns peak planning into one capacity view.
Demand Forecast: Start With the Shape of the Surge
A peak is rarely a single day. It builds, holds and fades, and each phase needs a different amount of capacity. A useful forecast therefore gives a daily stop count for every week of the season, not one big total.
The chart below uses an illustrative network with a baseline of 4,000 stops a day. The solid bar is baseline demand and the lighter bar is the total with seasonal and promotion lift. Week five carries a major promotion and reaches 6,400 stops a day.
Use stops, not orders
Capacity is spent on stops. Convert orders to stops using your own multi-parcel rate, since dense drops use less capacity.
Forecast by area
Promotions rarely lift every postcode equally. A network total hides the depots that will actually run out of routes.
Track forecast error
Record planned against actual stops each week. The error you measure sets the size of the buffer you carry next time.
Driver and Vehicle Capacity: Count What You Can Really Run
Headcount and fleet size are not capacity. Capacity is the number of full routes you can actually put on the road, after absence, repairs and legal driving hours. The smaller of the driver count and the vehicle count sets the limit.
A gap of 24 routes is 2,400 stops a day with nobody to deliver them. Finding this number weeks ahead is the whole value of capacity planning.
Hours, not heads
Check legal and contract limits for daily hours and rest. A driver available for a nine hour shift in normal weeks may not be allowed a longer one every day of a peak.
Reserve and uptime
Hold a small reserve for breakdowns and book planned servicing before the peak starts. A van in the workshop in week five is a lost route.
| Capacity Input | Where It Comes From | Peak Risk | Early Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rostered drivers | Shift planning | Absence and leave clashes | Freeze leave dates and recruit early |
| Available vans | Fleet and workshop records | Breakdowns and late servicing | Service ahead and hold a reserve |
| Hours per route | Shift rules and past routes | Overtime limits reached | Plan shorter loops, not longer days |
| Depot throughput | Loading bay times | Queues at the dock | Stagger loading by wave |
| Hired capacity | Partner contracts | Limits and surcharges | Agree volumes before the season |
Find Your Capacity Gap Before Peak Does
Book a 30-minute session and iFactory AI will show how demand, drivers, vans and routes combine into a clear capacity gap on realistic delivery data.
Route Density: The Cheapest Capacity You Own
Adding stops to each route adds capacity without a new van or driver. In the ledger, moving from 100 to 110 stops per route cuts the routes needed from 64 to 59, closing five routes of the gap for free.
| Stops per Route | Routes Needed for 6,400 Stops | Gap Against 40 Usable Routes | Main Trade-off |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100, current plan | 64 | 24 | None, this is the baseline |
| 110, tighter routes | 59 | 19 | Less slack for failed attempts |
| 120, stretched routes | 54 | 14 | Late finishes and more overtime |
Density has a limit. Past a point, routes finish late, drivers run into hour limits and failed attempts rise. The best value usually comes from moving stops between neighbouring routes, not from simply adding more.
Cluster promotion orders
Campaign orders often bunch in certain areas. Dedicated routes for those areas keep stops close together.
Offer delivery days
Fixed days by area gather stops that would otherwise be scattered across the week.
Use pickup points
Lockers and shops turn many drops into one. They also cut failed first attempts.
Dispatch Waves: Spread the Load Across the Day
When every van leaves at six, the dock jams and every customer is served in the same narrow window. Splitting departures into waves smooths the dock, uses vans twice and keeps late orders alive for same-day delivery.
| Wave | Departs | Routes | Stops | Best Used For |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wave 1 | 06:00 | 35 | 3,850 | Time-window and priority parcels |
| Wave 2 | 09:30 | 14 | 1,540 | Standard parcels and hired vans |
| Wave 3 | 15:00 | 10 loops | 1,000 | Evening deliveries and late orders |
| Total | Three departures | 59 | 6,390 | About 6,400 stops a day |
Stagger the dock
Give each wave its own loading slot so vans do not queue and drivers do not start the day waiting.
Cut-off by wave
Each wave needs a clear order cut-off. A later cut-off for wave 3 gives customers more time and the warehouse a steady pick flow.
Protect driver hours
Second loops must fit inside shift and rest rules. Check hours before promising evening slots.
Closing the Gap: Build the Plan From Layers
No single option closes a 24 route gap, so stack them from cheapest to most expensive. Each layer below is counted in routes, so the plan can be checked against the ledger.
Total: 40 plus 10 plus 9 equals 59 routes, enough for 6,400 stops at 110 stops per route. Without the density gain, the same plan would need 64 routes and five more hired routes.
Contingency Planning: Decide the Response in Advance
On the day of a surge, nobody has time to debate. Agree triggers and actions weeks ahead, then watch the numbers that fire them. The thresholds below are illustrative, so set your own from past peaks.
Backup partners
Agree rates, volumes and handover rules before the season. Partners are slowest to find during the peak itself.
Customer messaging
Draft delay notices in advance. A clear message sent early prevents failed attempts and support contacts.
Priority rules
Decide which orders move first when capacity runs short, such as time-critical, perishable or high-value parcels.
Promotion Event Readiness: A 33 Day Runway
A promotion is a dated event, so plan backwards from launch day. Each stage below has one clear job and an owner.
Peak KPIs to Watch Every Day
A small set of numbers tells you whether the plan is holding. Review them each morning in the peak weeks and weekly otherwise.
| KPI | What It Shows | How to Read It | Warning Sign |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capacity cover ratio | Usable routes divided by routes needed | Aim for one or higher | Below 1.0 within seven days |
| Forecast error | Planned against actual stops | Smaller is better | Error above your buffer |
| Stops per route | Density of each route | Match the planned figure | Falling during the peak |
| On-time departure | Share of vans leaving on schedule | Check by wave | Dock queues in wave 1 |
| First-attempt success | Deliveries finished on try one | Compare with normal weeks | Down two points or more |
| Overtime hours | Hours beyond the planned shift | Track by depot | Rising several days running |
| Cost per completed delivery | Total cost over finished deliveries | Include hired and overtime | Above the peak budget |
| Backlog at cut-off | Orders not yet routed | Aim for zero | Growing day over day |
Common Peak Planning Mistakes
Most failures repeat the same few habits. Pair each with its fix and the plan stays honest.
What iFactory AI Adds to Peak Planning
iFactory AI is smart manufacturing and industrial software that brings operational data into one planning view for operations teams.
What the Peak Costs: Compare Plans in Money
A capacity plan is also a budget. Put a unit cost on each layer and the cheapest way to close the gap becomes obvious. The costs below are illustrative per route-day, so replace them with your own.
| Layer | Routes | Cost per Route-Day | Daily Cost | Share of Peak Spend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own fleet | 40 | 325 | 13,000 | 71% |
| Second loops | 10 | 180 | 1,800 | 10% |
| Hired partners | 9 | 380 | 3,420 | 19% |
| Total plan | 59 | About 310 average | 18,220 | 100% |
Second loops are cheapest per route because the van, insurance and part of the driver shift are already paid for. Hired capacity costs the most per route, yet it supplies fewer than one route in six. Doubling the hired share would raise the daily bill with no service benefit.
Cost of a late plan
Hiring in the final week usually costs more per route than agreeing volumes early, and the choice of partners is smaller.
Cost of a miss
A stop that is not served becomes a late delivery, a contact and often a refund. Put that cost beside the cost of extra capacity.
Cost of unused capacity
Over-hiring also costs money. The forecast and buffer should keep spare routes small, not remove them.
Reading Last Year: Turn Past Peaks Into Inputs
Your own history is the best forecast input you have. The review of the last peak should answer a few plain questions, and each answer becomes a number in this year's plan.
Who Owns What During a Peak
Plans fail when everyone assumes someone else owns a number. Give each input one named owner and one review time.
A short daily call with these owners, built around the eight KPIs, replaces long email chains. Fifteen minutes is enough when the numbers are on one screen.
Delivery Promises Under Peak Pressure
What you promise customers should follow what you can run. Promising a narrow window on a day when capacity is thin turns a capacity gap into a service failure.
Keep premium windows open
Offer same-day and narrow slots where routes have room. Spare capacity is an asset worth selling carefully.
Widen and protect
Widen windows, move low-priority orders later and tell customers early. A clear later date beats a missed early one.
Checkout messages should read from the same capacity view that dispatch uses. When the two disagree, customers see a promise the depot cannot keep. Linking them is a simple, high-value step for peak weeks.
Plain-Language Glossary
Shared words keep peak meetings short. Agree these once.
Frequently Asked Questions
How early should peak capacity planning start?
Many teams begin 8 to 12 weeks ahead, because hiring, partner contracts and servicing all take time. Refine the forecast weekly as early orders arrive.
How do you convert a promotion into capacity needs?
Estimate extra orders, convert them into stops using your multi-parcel rate, then divide by stops per route. Compare the result with usable routes by area.
What buffer should a peak plan carry?
Size it from your own past forecast error. Ask support how forecast error is tracked by depot, then set the buffer to cover most of it.
Is it better to hire vans or add second loops?
Second loops are usually cheaper, but they depend on driver hours and depot flow. Use them first, then hire only the remaining gap.
Which data do we need to begin?
Past daily stops, planned promotions, driver rosters, fleet availability and shift rules. Failure reasons and route times make the density and wave views stronger.
Be Ready Before the Surge Arrives
iFactory AI joins demand, drivers, vans, density and waves into one peak plan, with triggers ready for the day it matters. Book a walkthrough on your own delivery data.
